Australia's Population Projected to Reach 28 Million in 2026 Despite Record-Low Growth Rate

Australia's population is forecast to reach 28 million people in 2026, marking a significant milestone despite the nation experiencing a record-low population growth rate. According to the Centre for Population's 2025 Population Statement, Australia's population growth is projected to slow to just 1.3 percent this year, down from 1.5 percent in the previous year.

The slowdown in population growth has been driven by a combination of factors, primarily a projected decrease in migrant arrivals and an increase in people departing Australia. Net overseas migration is expected to fall to 260,000 in 2026, representing roughly half the number of migrants who arrived in 2023 when migration to Australia surged following the pandemic. This significant drop in net migration reflects a shift from the post-COVID migration boom that had characterized the previous few years.

The decline in net overseas migration is being driven by departures from the country, as many individuals who arrived in Australia on temporary visas are reaching their visa expiry dates and leaving. This creates a net departure scenario where more people are leaving than arriving, unlike the earlier post-pandemic period when arrivals exceeded departures significantly.

Australia's birth rate is also contributing to the slower population growth. The nation's birth rate is projected to continue declining in 2026, falling to 1.45 children per woman as couples delay having children and opt for smaller family sizes. However, demographers project a modest recovery to 1.62 children per woman by 2031-32, though this would still remain below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman that is necessary for natural population increase without migration.

The trend of declining birth rates reflects broader choices being made by Australian couples. Two-child families remain the most common family structure in Australia, but the proportion of couples choosing not to have children has steadily increased over time. Australia now has a higher rate of childless families compared to countries such as the United States and Denmark.

Dementia has overtaken ischaemic heart disease as the leading cause of death in Australia, according to data from the Centre for Population. This shift reflects the aging demographic profile of the nation.

While Australia remains younger compared to many other developed economies, the nation's median age is expected to rise by 1.8 years to reach 40.2 years by 2035-36. This aging trend is a natural consequence of declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.

Population growth is not expected to be distributed evenly across Australia. Western Australia is projected to experience the highest population growth rate in the coming years, driven by both net overseas migration and internal migration from other states and territories. Tasmania and South Australia are expected to be the slowest-growing states between 2026 and 2036.

New South Wales is projected to remain Australia's most populous state, reaching 9.6 million people by 2035-36, representing approximately 30 percent of the national population. Both Sydney and Melbourne are projected to pass 8 million residents in the 2050s. Melbourne, however, is forecast to become the nation's most populous city by the 2060s, reaching 9.1 million people by 2065-66, surpassing Sydney.

Immigration is expected to become a politically contentious issue in 2026, with the federal opposition indicating it will maintain pressure on the government regarding the number of migrants entering the country. The Coalition, which has not yet released its formal migration policy, has flagged intentions to include tougher language requirements for aspiring migrants seeking to enter Australia.

The federal government has responded to demographic trends by indicating it is implementing policies to support families and encourage childbearing among Australians. These initiatives are part of a broader effort to address cost-of-living pressures, increase housing supply, strengthen migration settings, and invest in skills development.